I attended the Mobile India Forum 2006 organized by Electronics Today on the 6th of September, where discussions centered around Emerging Technologies in Mobile Communications. With the issue of spectrum allocation hogging the headlines of late, debate on spectrum-heavy technologies was bound to take center stage: Prof. Jhunjhunwala of IIT Madras questioned the viability of implementing 3G, while his recommendation of India taking the lead in developing 4G technology was echoed by Dr. M.V. Pitake of Medini Consultants.
Prof. Jhunjhunwala highlighted the role that reducing tariffs and low cost of handsets have played in India’s mobile growth- cost per call is 1 cent a minute at an ARPU of $7 a month, with handset prices of less than $25. In fact, even when CDMA handset prices were marginally higher at $5 more than that of GSM handsets, a hue and cry was raised.
He also said that spectrum shortage is a key issue, but not enough is being done to optimize the usage of spectrum. While 3G will have a “bit higher” spectral efficiency, and a “bit higher” data rate, it should only be deployed when the price is right. When compared to low-end DSL broadband of 256kbps, 3G and WiMax just cannot compete, until at least 2009 when the price will be right. Even rural deployment of cellular telephony is not viable because it will not gain acceptance until ARPU becomes $2 per month, and tariff 0.5 cents per month. At present, such tariffs will push all operators to bankruptcy. He mentioned a product that has just been developed - a mini GSM station that costs only $400, can take 100-200 subscribers on 1-2 watt power, and will cost a consumer $2 a month. He stressed the need for developing 4G technology and not getting caught up in the race for 3G.
Dr. Pitke reiterated Prof. Jhunjhunwala’s point of -€œnot running after fashion-€ to adopt 3G, and suggested switching to a packet based technology and developing IPR that will give India some ownership of the future of telecommunications. He believes that WiMax will not be able to match up to 4G, which like all disruptive technologies, will provide the higher speeds, better facilities, more reliable networks, wider coverage and lower costs. SN Gupta, Principal Advisor, TRAI also spoke of enabling next generation networks where packet based technologies will make distances and time redundant, and can be accessed using multiple devices anywhere.
There were few who spoke in favour of 3G: P. Balaji, President TEMA mentioned that according to an Ericsson survey, India has a greater scope for accepting new technologies than any other country. 3G services, according to him, are improving APRUs across the globe for operators. Rural applications of 3G also cannot be ignored, with Telemedicine, Education, and e-Governance being enabled.
There were others who spoke of the facilities that 3G will provide, and that consumer demand will make 3G feasible, but the price-point argument against 3G was most convincing.